As of November 8, 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) is favored to become the 45th President of the United States.
Across 10,000 simulations of my model, Hillary Clinton (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) 75.37% of the time. These model predictions are based on an analysis of 1,674 state and national-level polls from HuffPost Pollster.
Who’s Winning Where?
The graphic below shows the model’s estimates of Clinton’s chances of winning in each state.
Electoral College Predictions
Based on model simulations, I estimate the current most likely outcome in the Electoral College is: 324 Electoral votes for Clinton vs. 214 Electoral votes for Trump. A candidate needs 270 Electoral votes to become President.
In a future post, I plan to detail the mechanics behind how this model works. Until then, you can check out this summary from Nate Silver, over at FiveThirtyEight.com. The details of my model are broadly similar to those of FiveThirtyEight’s “polls only” model, with a few exceptions.
Brian Kurilla is a psychological scientist with a Ph.D. in cognitive psychology. You can follow Brian on Twitter @briankurilla