Trump’s Approval Numbers are Low. But they Don’t Foretell his Defeat in 2020…yet

This is a follow-up to my previous post, in which I discussed the mechanics and early predictions of a few statistical models I developed to estimate the chances that Donald Trump will be re-elected to the Presidency during the 2020 General Election.

As I wrote in my last post, Trump’s job approval numbers have been pretty dismal the past several months. According to my polling aggregator, which estimates approval ratings based on polls gathered from HuffPost, a full 58% of Americans presently disapprove of the job Trump is doing in the White House. Only 38% approve. Read more “Trump’s Approval Numbers are Low. But they Don’t Foretell his Defeat in 2020…yet”

What Are the Chances that Trump will be Re-Elected in 2020?

As of the time of my writing this post, we are 276 days into Donald Trump’s first term as President of the United States. That means the 2020 presidential election is still 1,107 days away. Is it too early to start speculating about whether Trump will be elected to a second term? Yes, absolutely. Nonetheless, I’m going to throw caution to the wind and try anyway. Read more “What Are the Chances that Trump will be Re-Elected in 2020?”

More Americans Are Worrying Daily Under President Trump

Source: “Daily Worry Up Sharply Since US Presidential Election.” Gallup

Have you found yourself worrying a lot more about the state of the world and the future of our country since Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the United States? If so, you’re not alone.

According to a new report from Gallup, there’s been a sharp increase since November in the percentage of Americans who say they experience a lot of worry during any given day. Read more “More Americans Are Worrying Daily Under President Trump”

When Polls Collide: A Deep Dive into Trump’s Favorability Ratings

If you’re like me and you regularly – and, okay, maybe a little obsessively – seek out public opinion polls for insight into what Americans think about the current political climate, then you might find yourself wondering from time to time why polls sometimes disagree with one another.

For instance, how many Americans so far approve of the job Donald Trump is doing in the White House? According to a Quinnipiac University poll released on January 25, 2017, Trump’s approval rating stands at a mere 36 percent. However, according to a poll from Rasmussen, which was released a mere four days later on January 29, the percentage of Americans who approve of Trump’s job performance is considerably higher at 53 percent. What gives? Read more “When Polls Collide: A Deep Dive into Trump’s Favorability Ratings”