This is a follow-up to my previous post, in which I discussed the mechanics and early predictions of a few statistical models I developed to estimate the chances that Donald Trump will be re-elected to the Presidency during the 2020 General Election.
As of the time of my writing this post, we are 276 days into Donald Trump’s first term as President of the United States. That means the 2020 presidential election is still 1,107 days away. Is it too early to start speculating about whether Trump will be elected to a second term? Yes, absolutely. Nonetheless, I’m going to throw caution to the wind and try anyway. Read more “What Are the Chances that Trump will be Re-Elected in 2020?”
According to a new poll released earlier this week by the Pew Research Center, roughly three-quarters of Americans (76%) think defending the country against terrorism should be Donald Trump’s top priority as President.
By all accounts, the 2016 presidential race was bitterly contentious. According to a Monmouth University poll from back in September, most voters (70%) think this past year’s election brought out the worst in people. Moreover, 7% of voters say they even lost or ended a friendship because of the election (although this may not be an unusually high percentage compared to previous elections).
Of course, rancor and animosity are not new in American politics. But they certainly appear to have gotten worse in recent years.
During the campaign last year, Donald Trump stated he would release his personal tax returns as soon as the IRS was finished conducting their “routine audit.”
He went on Fox News and said so as recently as this past September, as noted by CNN:
“Just so you understand I’m under audit. A routine audit. And when the audits complete I’ll release my return,” Trump reiterated Tuesday on Fox News.
But now, President-elect Trump seems to be signaling that he intends to back out of this promise. During this past Wednesday’s press conference, Trump stated he now has no intention of releasing his tax returns because, as he sees it, the only ones who care about his taxes are reporters and members of the (presumably, in his eyes, crooked and dishonest) media.
As part of my evolving effort to do more to encourage others to base votes for elected officials on hard numbers and quantitative evidence rather than subjective and possibly biased perceptions and intuitions (not to mention fake-news), I’ve decided to start collecting various economic data to help readers gauge the potential impact of the Trump administration on the overall health and well-being of the U.S. economy.
This new feature is called “Economic Snapshot,” and you can find a link here and at the top of the blog and in the sidebar.
Well, the tallies from the 2016 Presidential Election are now finalized and the results certified. So, it’s official. Despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by approximately 2.9 million votes, Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States after securing 304 votes in the Electoral College.
I don’t think this outcome was ever seriously in doubt since the election on November 8th. So, let’s move on to the other reason why it matters that all the votes have now been counted up and certified.
But whether you’re looking ahead to the next four years with unbounded enthusiasm or overwhelming dread, there’s one thing we all should be able to agree on now that the presidential race is over. And that’s the need to reaffirm our commitment to intelligent, respectful, and substantive debate. And moreover, to debate grounded in logic, reason, and verifiable fact. Because in a mature democracy, there should be no room or tolerance for hateful rhetoric, rumors, conspiracy theories, and “fake news.” Yet sadly, each of these featured prominently this past election cycle.