Trump’s Approval Numbers are Low. But they Don’t Foretell his Defeat in 2020…yet

This is a follow-up to my previous post, in which I discussed the mechanics and early predictions of a few statistical models I developed to estimate the chances that Donald Trump will be re-elected to the Presidency during the 2020 General Election.

As I wrote in my last post, Trump’s job approval numbers have been pretty dismal the past several months. According to my polling aggregator, which estimates approval ratings based on polls gathered from HuffPost, a full 58% of Americans presently disapprove of the job Trump is doing in the White House. Only 38% approve. Read more “Trump’s Approval Numbers are Low. But they Don’t Foretell his Defeat in 2020…yet”

What Are the Chances that Trump will be Re-Elected in 2020?

As of the time of my writing this post, we are 276 days into Donald Trump’s first term as President of the United States. That means the 2020 presidential election is still 1,107 days away. Is it too early to start speculating about whether Trump will be elected to a second term? Yes, absolutely. Nonetheless, I’m going to throw caution to the wind and try anyway. Read more “What Are the Chances that Trump will be Re-Elected in 2020?”

More Americans Are Worrying Daily Under President Trump

Source: “Daily Worry Up Sharply Since US Presidential Election.” Gallup

Have you found yourself worrying a lot more about the state of the world and the future of our country since Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the United States? If so, you’re not alone.

According to a new report from Gallup, there’s been a sharp increase since November in the percentage of Americans who say they experience a lot of worry during any given day. Read more “More Americans Are Worrying Daily Under President Trump”

Trump’s Crackdown on Immigration Probably Won’t Make America Safer

According to a new poll released earlier this week by the Pew Research Center, roughly three-quarters of Americans (76%) think defending the country against terrorism should be Donald Trump’s top priority as President.

Of course, Trump made terrorism a central issue in his campaign, and this may well be part of the reason he was elected in November. During the campaign, Trump talked tough about immigration and famously called for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.”

And now that he’s taken office, Trump has quickly moved forward with his plan to try to prevent terrorists from entering the country by drastically cracking down on immigration – both legal and otherwise. Read more “Trump’s Crackdown on Immigration Probably Won’t Make America Safer”

Scientists are Organizing to March in Washington

Scientists at the 2014 People’s Climate March in New York. Credit: Joe Brusky/flickr

Following the success of the Women’s March on DC and the Trump administration’s recent move to censor scientists at various federal agencies, including the Department of Agriculture and the Environmental Protection Agency, a group of researchers and science advocates have begun organizing their own political rally. Read more “Scientists are Organizing to March in Washington”

Actually, Mr. Trump, Most Members of the Public Do Care About Your Taxes

During the campaign last year, Donald Trump stated he would release his personal tax returns as soon as the IRS was finished conducting their “routine audit.”

He went on Fox News and said so as recently as this past September, as noted by CNN:

“Just so you understand I’m under audit. A routine audit. And when the audits complete I’ll release my return,” Trump reiterated Tuesday on Fox News.

But now, President-elect Trump seems to be signaling that he intends to back out of this promise. During this past Wednesday’s press conference, Trump stated he now has no intention of releasing his tax returns because, as he sees it, the only ones who care about his taxes are reporters and members of the (presumably, in his eyes, crooked and dishonest) media.

Read more “Actually, Mr. Trump, Most Members of the Public Do Care About Your Taxes”

Introducing ‘Economic Snapshot’ – Charts Tracking Trump’s Impact on Jobs and the Economy

As part of my evolving effort to do more to encourage others to base votes for elected officials on hard numbers and quantitative evidence rather than subjective and possibly biased perceptions and intuitions (not to mention fake-news), I’ve decided to start collecting various economic data to help readers gauge the potential impact of the Trump administration on the overall health and well-being of the U.S. economy.

This new feature is called “Economic Snapshot,” and you can find a link here and at the top of the blog and in the sidebar.

Read more “Introducing ‘Economic Snapshot’ – Charts Tracking Trump’s Impact on Jobs and the Economy”

Election Polls Underestimated Donald Trump Across Most of the Country

Well, the tallies from the 2016 Presidential Election are now finalized and the results certified. So, it’s official. Despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by approximately 2.9 million votes, Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States after securing 304 votes in the Electoral College.

I don’t think this outcome was ever seriously in doubt since the election on November 8th. So, let’s move on to the other reason why it matters that all the votes have now been counted up and certified.

Read more “Election Polls Underestimated Donald Trump Across Most of the Country”

A New Year and A New Mission

There’s no denying Donald Trump beat the odds and defied all expectation when he was elected 45th President of the United States.

But whether you’re looking ahead to the next four years with unbounded enthusiasm or overwhelming dread, there’s one thing we all should be able to agree on now that the presidential race is over. And that’s the need to reaffirm our commitment to intelligent, respectful, and substantive debate. And moreover, to debate grounded in logic, reason, and verifiable fact. Because in a mature democracy, there should be no room or tolerance for hateful rhetoric, rumors, conspiracy theories, and “fake news.” Yet sadly, each of these featured prominently this past election cycle.

Read more “A New Year and A New Mission”