Trump’s Approval Numbers are Low. But they Don’t Foretell his Defeat in 2020…yet

This is a follow-up to my previous post, in which I discussed the mechanics and early predictions of a few statistical models I developed to estimate the chances that Donald Trump will be re-elected to the Presidency during the 2020 General Election.

As I wrote in my last post, Trump’s job approval numbers have been pretty dismal the past several months. According to my polling aggregator, which estimates approval ratings based on polls gathered from HuffPost, a full 58% of Americans presently disapprove of the job Trump is doing in the White House. Only 38% approve. Read more “Trump’s Approval Numbers are Low. But they Don’t Foretell his Defeat in 2020…yet”

Election Polls Underestimated Donald Trump Across Most of the Country

Well, the tallies from the 2016 Presidential Election are now finalized and the results certified. So, it’s official. Despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by approximately 2.9 million votes, Donald Trump will become the 45th President of the United States after securing 304 votes in the Electoral College.

I don’t think this outcome was ever seriously in doubt since the election on November 8th. So, let’s move on to the other reason why it matters that all the votes have now been counted up and certified.

Read more “Election Polls Underestimated Donald Trump Across Most of the Country”

How Did the Polls and Forecasters Get it all so Wrong?

Well, I guess I picked the wrong year to get interested in forecasting presidential elections.

As we all know by now, Republican nominee Donald Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States, with 279 electoral votes and roughly 47% of the popular vote.

However, my statistical model, which was based on national and state-level polls, suggested Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would be the likely winner. Going into election day, I estimated she had about a 75% chance of coming out on top.

forecast_11-8-16

Read more “How Did the Polls and Forecasters Get it all so Wrong?”

The Week in Politics, According to Twitter

Well, this past week was an eventful one in U.S. politics.

Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee, delved into yet another Twitter-related controversy on Saturday after tweeting an image of his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, standing near a giant pile of cash and a word bubble conspicuously shaped like the Star of David. Critics immediately pounced on the imagery and accused Trump of anti-Semitism.

The Trump campaign quickly responded by deleting the tweet and replacing it with an altered version, which featured a circle rather than a star. But then, in a surprising display of apparent self-sabotage, Trump went on to defend the use of the six-pointed star, claiming in an angry speech that his campaign staffers “shouldn’t have taken it down” and that it’s “just a star.” Unfortunately for Trump, the Anti-Defamation League and 27 other Jewish organizations disagree. Read more “The Week in Politics, According to Twitter”

Predicting Presidential Elections from Ale to Zinfandel

What variables do you need to consider to accurately predict the outcome of a U.S. presidential election?

The current state of the economy?

International affairs and the threat of terrorism?

The specific plans and policies proposed by each presidential candidate and how well each plan resonates with likely voters?

The amount of money raised by each campaign?

Surely each of these factors, among many others, is an important predictor of who will go on to win the Presidency.

But how about another, perhaps less obvious, variable.

As ridiculous as it might sound, one might be able to predict the winner in a U.S. presidential election based solely on the amount of alcohol people in each state consume.

Read more “Predicting Presidential Elections from Ale to Zinfandel”